The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) has identified "climate shocks" as a risk to food inflation rates and overall price rise while stating that the outlook for the country's economic growth remains bright. In its Annual Report for 2023-24, released on Thursday, the central bank said easing supply-chain pressures, broad-based softening in core inflation, and early indications of an above-normal southwest monsoon meant well for the inflation outlook in 2024-25. "The increasing incidence of climate shocks, however, imparts considerable uncertainty to the food inflation and overall inflation outlook," said the RBI while noting headline inflation moderated by 1.3 percentage points on an annual average basis to 5.4 per cent in 2023-24.
Imports also fell for the eighth consecutive months, down 0.75 per cent to $41.14 billion in January, widening the trade deficit to a seven-month high of $15.17 billion.
Export sectors that showed positive growth last month included chemical, iron ore, electronics, marine products and pharmaceuticals. Decline in overall imports, including oil and gold, led to narrowing of trade deficit.
Work on a dozen decisions to start by next week.
Imports during October also rose by 17.62 per cent to $44.11 billion, leading to widening of trade deficit to $17.13 billion.
Under the trade agreement between India and Iran, the West Asian country can pay India in rupees for its imports against oil exports to India, which New Delhi pays for in Iranian rial.
India is one of biggest producers and exporters of agri commodities.
Trade deficit marginally widened to $9.85 billion as against $9.72 billion in February 2019.
After a spike in crude oil and gas prices in October following the Hamas terror attack, prices eased down 9 per cent month-on-month in November. The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (Opec) and Opec+ agreed to a further voluntary production cut in January-March 2024 to try and support global crude prices. The best guess here is that crude prices (currently at $75/barrel, or bbl) will not likely cross significantly above $80, and gas prices are also likely to remain subdued unless there's a further escalation in the Israel-Hamas conflict.
Barring rice, spices, iron ore and pharmaceuticals, all the remaining 26 key sectors registered negative growth in May. Imports too plunged 51 per cent to $22.2 billion in May.
In spite of an overall healthy rise in exports, there are many traditional sectors which used to be the mainstay of India's exports in the past, but are now suffering from significant weaknesses, says A K Bhattacharya.
Crude oil shipments from the US to India rose to the highest levels in November since the conflict began in Ukraine in late February, sparking hopes of a resurgence in oil flows from the US to the subcontinent, reveals shipping data. Shipments from the US have surged as Western nations prepare to impose additional sanctions on Russian crude flows. The US shipped around 450,000 barrels per day of crude last month to India, twice that of shipments in October, according to data from London-based commodity intelligence provider Vortexa.
Growing for the third consecutive month, the country's exports rose marginally by 0.67 per cent year-on-year to $27.93 billion in February even as trade deficit widened to $12.62 billion, according to official data released on Monday.
Imports rose by 1.44 per cent to $43.44 billion in March 2019.
The government has slashed the windfall profit tax levied on domestically-produced crude oil as well as on export of diesel and ATF following a drop in global oil prices, according to an official order. The levy on crude oil produced by companies such as Oil and Natural Gas Corporation (ONGC) has been cut steeply to Rs 1,700 per tonne from Rs 4,900, the order dated December 15 said. Crude oil pumped out of the ground is refined and converted into fuel like petrol, diesel and aviation turbine fuel (ATF).
Among the Sensex constituents, 20 stocks ended the session in green with HDFC Bank, Titan, Tech Mahindra, and Asian Paints being the major gainers. TCS, Maruti, Kotak Mahindra Bank and Bajaj Finserve were the other gainers. In contrast, SBI, Bharti Airtel, JSW Steel, PowerGrid, ITC and Reliance closed the trading with losses.
India's exports during the first week of September jumped 13.35 per cent year-on-year to $ 6.12 billion, official data released on Thursday showed. At the same time, imports declined by 21.37 per cent to $ 6.85 billion. Consequently, the deficit during September 1 to 7 worked out to $ 730 million.
Petrol and diesel prices are unlikely to be increased despite firming raw material costs because of upcoming general elections next year, Moody's Investors Service said. Three state-owned fuel retailers -- Indian Oil Corporation (IOC), Bharat Petroleum Corporation Ltd (BPCL) and Hindustan Petroleum Corporation Ltd (HPCL) -- which control roughly 90 per cent of the market, have kept petrol and diesel prices on freeze for a record 18 months in a row. This is despite the raw material (crude oil) cost surging last year, leading to heavy losses in first half of 2022-23 fiscal year before easing oil prices propelled them to profitability.
Sectors, which, recorded healthy export growth included electronics, engineering, chemicals, pharma and tea.
A dip in petroleum product exports for the first time in the current fiscal has contributed to a 22 per cent decline in merchandise exports in January, commerce ministry data reveals.
Tehran plans to lift exports by 500,000 barrels per day
Rising export of petroleum products helped Commerce Minister Kamal Nath meet 96 per cent of the targeted $160 billion worth of exports in 2007-08, but it could not contain the country's net oil import bill. The net oil import bill in 2007-08 is likely to rise by around 41 per cent over 2006-07 as the country's refineries consumed 9 per cent more crude oil to meet surging demand even as crude oil prices rose nearly 53 per cent during the year.
Despite the 6-month high, trade deficit has widened to a four-month high of $14.62 billion, as imports rose by 14.85 per cent during the month, reports Subhayan Chakraborty.
Foreign exchange reserves of the oil producers have increased by $1.1 trillion over the past decade.
India should become a middle-income country and then push to make INR (rupee) a hard currency, and till then, it must promote the settlement of global trade in the local currency, think tank GTRI said on Sunday. Global Trade Research Initiative (GTRI) said that transforming a currency into a hard currency is a complex process that hinges on several pivotal factors. Firstly, economic stability is paramount; a country must exhibit low and stable inflation, consistent growth, and a balanced trade environment.
'The impact of COVID-19 on the economy has been so overwhelming that even a significant drop in global oil prices, which in normal times would have brought cheer, has posed new challenges for the government,' observes A K Bhattacharya.
Trade deficit during the month narrowed to $17.4 billion as against $12.72 billion in the same month last year
Imports too contracted by 28.72 per cent to $31.16 billion. Dip in exports and imports narrowed the trade deficit -- the difference between imports and exports -- in March to $9.76 billion, the lowest in the last 13 months.
India's merchandise exports shrank nearly a quarter in September from a year ago, government data showed.
Stocks of Hindustan Petroleum Corporation Limited (HPCL), Bharat Petroleum Corporation Limited (BPCL) and Indian Oil Corporation Limited (IOCL) have more headroom left despite the sharp run in the last few weeks, suggests a recent report from Morgan Stanley. Stocks of these oil refining and marketing companies (OMCs), it believes, are seeing multiples re-rate as investors reassess long-term growth prospects. "IOCL trades at one year forward P/BV of 1.2x, 19 per cent below +1 standard deviation (SD); BPCL trades at one year forward P/BV of 1.5x, near historical averages; HPCL trades at one year forward P/BV of 1.5x, near +1SD," Morgan Stanley said.
Officials from India's biggest private refiner recently visited Iran to chalk out the details for resumption of trade ties with Tehran.
India will not tailor its policies to suit US EV maker Tesla, and its laws and tariff rules will be formulated to attract all-electric vehicle manufacturers from across the world to set up a base in the world's fastest-growing economy, Commerce and Industry Minister Piyush Goyal said. Tesla has been seeking an initial tariff concession that would allow it to offset 70 per cent customs duty for cars priced less than $40,000, and 100 per cent for cars of higher value.
The fundamental construct of India's neighbourhood policy still needs to be what Vajpayee postulated, Manmohan Singh embraced, and Modi energised. It's just that we need to junk domestic politics and excessive religiosity, while acquiring much humility and a renewed respectfulness towards our neighbours, recommends Shekhar Gupta.
Imports too declined by 16.31 per cent to $37.39 billion.
'I think some of us, like Mukesh Ambani, myself and those of us who head industrial units, ought to really focus on what we can really do to make the world a safer place, maybe 50 or 100 years from now.' 'For instance, how can we deal with climate change and global warming, right now?' 'The effects of it may not be felt now; in fact, we may pay a price for it today, but it will help the generations to follow.'
Indian Ambassador to the US Harsh Vardhan Shringla said India has stopped importing oil from Iran after the United States refused to extend exemption from sanctions earlier this month.
With exporters' claim for over five months still pending, liquidity has been wiped out and the process of finalising new contracts has been held up.
After contracting for six straight months, India's exports rose 5.99 per cent to $27.58 billion in September on account of growth in shipments of drugs and pharmaceuticals and readymade garments, as per the government data released on Thursday. Exports stood at $26.02 billion in September 2019. The country's imports contracted 19.6 per cent to $30.31 billion in September.
The trade deficit marginally narrowed to $12.5 billion last month from $12.8 billion in July.
China consumed roughly 10.50 million barrels per day of oil in June.
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